Technology Prediction Markets

    816 markets

    Best AI at the end of 2026?

    Claude
    53%
    Gemini
    36%
    Muse
    2%
    Live$27K
    Technology+3 more

    Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai)

    Claude
    94%
    MiniMax
    5%
    ChatGPT
    5%
    Live$25K
    Technology

    Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

    Before Jan 20, 2029
    23%
    Before Jan 1, 2028
    14%
    Before Jan 1, 2027
    5%
    Live$18K
    Technology+1 more

    Best AI in Oct 2026?

    Gemini
    89%
    Claude
    9%
    Muse
    2%
    Live$6K
    Technology

    How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

    Above 10
    86%
    Above 9
    98%
    Above 11
    2%
    Live$5K
    Technology

    Anthropic market share this week

    Above 5.0%
    98%
    Above 5.4%
    12%
    Live$5K
    Technology

    Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

    Somalia
    28%
    Rwanda
    22%
    United States
    11%
    Live$5K
    Technology+3 more

    When will Anthropic release Mythos?

    Before Jan 1, 2027
    12%
    Before Dec 1, 2026
    5%
    Live$5K
    Technology

    When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?

    Before Dec 1, 2026
    20%
    Before Nov 1, 2026
    5%
    Live$3K
    Technology

    OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25

    Above 184T tokens
    70%
    Above 186T tokens
    79%
    Above 188T tokens
    14%
    Live$2K
    Technology+2 more

    Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?

    42%chance

    Before 2028

    Yes 26¢No 58¢
    Live$2K
    Technology

    DeepSeek market share this week

    75%chance

    Above 26.4%

    Yes 66¢No 25¢
    Live$2K
    Technology

    Best AI this week

    98%chance

    Gemini

    Yes 96¢No 2¢
    Live$2K
    Technology

    NASA lands on the moon?

    Before 2029
    28%
    Before 2028
    5%
    Live$2K
    Technology

    Open source token share Oct 19–25 (OpenRouter)

    Above 72%
    64%
    Above 73%
    66%
    Above 74%
    79%
    Live$2K
    Technology+3 more

    Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

    Sacramento, CA
    15%
    Las Vegas, NV
    91%
    New Orleans, LA
    6%
    Live$2K
    Technology+6 more

    When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?

    Before Feb 2027
    48%
    Before 2027
    19%
    Live$1K
    Technology

    Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

    Anthropic
    78%
    OpenAI
    13%
    Google
    2%
    Live$852.56
    Technology

    Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?

    Above 28k
    68%
    Above 30k
    52%
    Above 32k
    48%
    Live$747.32
    Technology

    SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

    Before Nov 27, 2026
    75%
    Before Nov 13, 2026
    22%
    Live$683.6
    Technology

    Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

    Before January 1, 2027
    8%
    Before December 1, 2026
    3%
    Before November 1, 2026
    2%
    Live$670.61
    Technology

    Google market share this week

    25%chance

    Above 20.1%

    Yes 14¢No 75¢
    Live$618.51
    Technology

    OpenRouter AI token usage in October

    Above 675T tokens
    87%
    Above 700T tokens
    15%
    Live$602
    Technology

    How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

    Above 140
    75%
    Above 150
    6%
    Above 180
    3%
    Live$574.13
    Technology+1 more

    Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

    OpenAI
    16%
    Meta
    12%
    Live$568.72
    Technology

    Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

    3%chance

    In Dec 31, 2026

    Yes 2¢No 97¢
    Live$549.83
    Technology

    OpenAI market share this week

    Above 18.1%
    73%
    Above 18.4%
    44%
    Live$548.7
    Technology

    Measles cases in 2026?

    Above 7000
    28%
    Above 8000
    22%
    Above 6000
    85%
    Live$538.13
    Technology

    Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?

    69%chance

    Before 2028

    Yes 68¢No 31¢
    Live$518.57
    Technology

    Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 28, 2026

    91%chance

    Above 55.6%

    Yes 86¢No 9¢
    Live$438.58
    Technology

    Follow technology prediction markets tied to AI milestones, company events, IPOs, product launches, and broader sector narratives. Higher-signal multi-outcome events are prioritized for search discovery.